Iran's Declining Influences In Iraq.

Iran's Declining Influences In Iraq. To the surprise of many, Iran's influences in Iraq has been ona steady decline since late 2009, when the IRGC brought IslamistShi'ite parties into a single coalition called Iraqi NationalAlliance (INA) to run in the March 7, 2010 legislative elections.Tehran's wish was to include PM Nuri al-Maleki's State of Law(SoL) in the INA. But Maleki made that conditional on himself being madethe alliance's sole candidate to the post of PM for anotherfour-year term. That did not work, because Tehran had ex-PM Ibrahimal-Ja'fari in mind for the top post. The IRGC, described by its Tehran critics as a conglomerate offascists ruling Iran with an iron fist, greedy business tycoons and"Mafiosi in control of most smuggling rackets", had plannedfor the INA to rule over Iraq for the next four years. But in the March7 elections, the secular Iraqiya of ex-PM Iyad Allawi came first with 91seats in the new 325-member Council of Representatives (parliament),Maleki's SoL came second with 89 seats and the INA came third withonly 70 seats; but most of INA's seats went to the anti-US Sadristmovement which was not on excellent terms with the Iranian theocracy.The fourth bloc, the KA, once again became the king-maker. The IRGC pressured the Sadrist to make a deal with Maleki. But theSupreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and al-Fadhila al-Islamiya, theShi'ite Islamist parties which were the closest to Iran, rebelledagainst Tehran and cast a veto on Maleki. The SIIC leader, Ammaral-Hakim, drew closer to Allawi as did the KA. Now Allawi is saying hewill not join a government headed by Maleki, thus blocking the wholeprocess; and the IRGC finds itself stuck in the deadlock. Even Grand Ayatullah Ali al-Sistani, the highest Shi'itereligious authority in Iraq, has been maginalised by Iraqi politics,with the majority of the people in this country openly displaying theirdisgust with the sectarian currents. Even the Islamist Shi'iteIraqis have become disillusioned by the militarised theocracy of Iran,with their leader overtly describing it as a dictatorship as bad atSaddam's Sunni/Ba'thist regime. Envoys for Maleki and his secular rival Allawi recently crossedpaths in Kuwait. Iraq's deputy PM just returned from Turkey and atop Shi'ite power-broker and others have beaten a path to Syriarecently to discuss Iraq's seven-month political logjam. Theirtrips reflected the possible end-games in motion on all sides and theneed for Maleki's SoL to est reactions across a region with sharplymixed views on this politician's gambits to remain in power. Theyrun from clear backing for Maleki in Iran to outright rejection of theincumbent in the Sunni heart-land and elsewhere. US officials, meanwhile, are urging a speedy resolution. There isfear the political vacuum which still could continue for months isencouraging insurgent attacks and rattling potential foreign investors.In central Baghdad on Oct. 8, more than 3,000 demonstrators joined in arally to demand an end to the deadlock, chanting "we cannot waitany longer". One banner carried the message: "Redo theelections if you can't form the government". At one time, Maleki appears close to nailing down enough allies tobegin forming a government. Days later, however, Allawi looks as if heis the man who can block all efforts, insisting on being the next PM. The Kurds of the KA, meanwhile, are taking their time, and it isunclear when they will make their final political position known. Theywant firm guarantees in exchange for their support, including areferendum to decide control of the oil-rich region around Kirkuk. Thearea lies just outside the Kurds' semi-autonomous zone, but theyare part of a three-way contest for influence along with ethnicTurkomans and the central authorities in Baghdad. The Kurds scheduledhigh-level talks with Al Maliki's allies on Friday. Key Maleki adviser Abdul-Halim al-Zuhairi says the early talks withthe KA leaders have included the Kirkuk referendum and demands forgreater aid to Kurds who suffered under attacks by Saddam'sdictatorship in the 1970s and 1980s. A possible sticking point, however,is over Kurdish proposals for what amounts to a pull-the-plug clause: apact that any future government would have to fall if Kurds withdrewtheir support. Zuhairi's delegation visited Qatar and Kuwait last week,trying to gauge reactions to a possible second Maleki term among GCCleaders. The rival group of politicians, from al-Iraqiya of Dr Allawi,backed by most of Iraq's Sunni Arabs, was doing some advanceground-work on their strategy. Even if the Sunni-backed bloc fails tokeep Maleki from staying in office, they are likely to lobby for keypositions in roles such as overseeing security and foreign affairs. Theyalso seek to reduce the powers of the PM's office. Kuwait factorsheavily in all political discussions in Iraq over demands for $25bn inUN-mandated reparations for Saddam's 1990 invasion.